Pahalgam: It was coming

Call it premonition or something else, I had a feeling last week that a disturbance in the valley is nearing. What was the tell? J.D. Vance’s visit to India.

As far back as I can remember, Pakistan and its proxies have created nuisance whenever a foreign dignitary, especially a U.S. one is visiting India. I find it hard to believe that our security and intelligence establishments had not anticipated a disturbance coinciding with the U.S. Vice President’s visit. However, I also find it comical when people and politicians start blaming intelligence agencies for a failure to detect such occurrences. Every year, the police and intelligence apparatus thwarts countless attempts by mischievous actors at domestic and international level. But they cannot be expected to be omnipresent, and the resulting tragedies are anybody’s fault but theirs.

The Pahalgam Attack though is another low in a series of lows for the Pakistani state-sponsored terrorist organisations, and a stark reminder of the dangers of religious extremism that continues to plague the sub-continent.

Pakistan, despite losing more and more soldiers every year to the militant activities of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), continues to dabble with communal forces in hopes of destabilising the Kashmir Valley. On the other hand, India, once again has downgraded the already paltry engagement it had with the Pakistani establishment. The “no talks with terrorism on the table” approach by the Modi government has worked and not worked at the same time. At the diplomatic level, we no longer have to engage in bogus efforts at peace with the Pakistanis and a permanent sense of enmity has persisted since Pulwama and the abrogation of the Article 370. But then, in face of attacks like Pulwama and now Pahalgam, our military options remain limited, which in turn emboldens organisations like Lashkar-e-Taiba to strike us time and again. Despite the political narrative, our last attempt at gung-ho counteraction resulted in the capture of Group Captain Abhinandan Vardhaman. So, the state of play does not favour us overwhelmingly when it comes to direct action against any of our neighbours and near adversaries.